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Para el ministro, esa magnitud demuestra que la estrategia oficial es consistente con el tamaño y la liquidez del mercado local.","type":"text"},{"_id":"ABBHCHNGWBCQVBBGFBUB5WYJOM","additional_properties":{},"content":"¿Intervención con mayor fuerza?","level":2,"type":"header"},{"_id":"TL74NGP2NFBLBMOKRX3RCG3BI4","additional_properties":{},"content":"Consultado sobre la posibilidad de que el BCRA intervenga con mayor fuerza durante la liquidación de la cosecha gruesa, Caputo evitó anticipar movimientos. Reiteró que la autoridad monetaria seguirá actuando dentro del esquema de bandas y con el foco puesto en minimizar la volatilidad.","type":"text"},{"_id":"2ZKDH6K5ONG33F64XOA47YQEZQ","additional_properties":{},"content":"También cuestionó a quienes reclaman que el Gobierno establezca un “piso” para el tipo de cambio. Los calificó como “falsos flotadores” porque, según dijo, en realidad buscan que el dólar suba y no que flote libremente.","type":"text"},{"_id":"N377KPURYRFWZHQ3HXDFPSJYKQ","additional_properties":{"fullSizeResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/N377KPURYRFWZHQ3HXDFPSJYKQ.jpg?auth=5aa8da30dd43f5aa8b7561760cb96e8f16ea9a049db82178b06251466ae25034","galleries":[],"ingestionMethod":"manual","mime_type":"image/jpeg","originalName":"NIC09133.jpg","originalUrl":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcronista/N377KPURYRFWZHQ3HXDFPSJYKQ.jpg","proxyUrl":"/resizer/v2/N377KPURYRFWZHQ3HXDFPSJYKQ.jpg?auth=5aa8da30dd43f5aa8b7561760cb96e8f16ea9a049db82178b06251466ae25034","published":true,"resizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/N377KPURYRFWZHQ3HXDFPSJYKQ.jpg?auth=5aa8da30dd43f5aa8b7561760cb96e8f16ea9a049db82178b06251466ae25034","restricted":false,"takenOn":"2026-03-02T14:07:14Z","thumbnailResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/N377KPURYRFWZHQ3HXDFPSJYKQ.jpg?auth=5aa8da30dd43f5aa8b7561760cb96e8f16ea9a049db82178b06251466ae25034&width=300","version":0,"template_id":1427,"alt_text":"","link":""},"address":{},"auth":{"1":"5aa8da30dd43f5aa8b7561760cb96e8f16ea9a049db82178b06251466ae25034"},"caption":"Caputo remarcó que “nada va a cambiar” y que el objetivo continuará siendo la acumulación de reservas, pero de manera “inteligente”.","created_date":"2026-03-02T15:17:11Z","credits":{"affiliation":[{"name":"El Cronista","type":"author"}]},"height":7008,"image_type":"photograph","last_updated_date":"2026-03-02T15:17:11Z","licensable":false,"owner":{"id":"elcronista","sponsored":false},"source":{"additional_properties":{"editor":"photo center"},"edit_url":"","system":"photo center"},"subtitle":"CAPUTO EL CRONISTA STREAM","taxonomy":{"associated_tasks":[]},"type":"image","url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcronista/N377KPURYRFWZHQ3HXDFPSJYKQ.jpg","version":"0.10.9","width":4672,"syndication":{},"creditIPTC":"El Cronista"},{"_id":"W6GKU7XOLZG7HNMVEYJUWKZI4U","additional_properties":{},"content":"Caputo explicó que cuando la autoridad monetaria da señales de sostener un determinado nivel, los especuladores tienden a retener sus dólares. “Si el Central sale a ponerle un piso, solo puede subir”, describió. Esa expectativa reduce los incentivos a vender y limita la oferta.","type":"text"},{"_id":"RYFFBB7KANH4ZJMNX6C2MCBE4Q","additional_properties":{},"content":"Como ejemplo, comparó enero y febrero. En el primer mes, con una intervención más marcada en torno a los $ 1470, el Banco Central compró menos divisas que en febrero, cuando permitió que la cotización descendiera levemente.","type":"text"},{"_id":"F2DTMTZFMNDQNFNB22MFNOCMGE","additional_properties":{},"content":"Para el ministro, el mercado cambiario “es un arte” y no una ciencia exacta. Sostuvo que anticipar montos o fechas de compra sería arrogante y desconocería la dinámica real de exportadores e importadores.","type":"text"},{"_id":"WNCBPZGWIZGYJHF4XXXKLRSB64","additional_properties":{},"content":"En esa línea, explicó que incluso en las negociaciones con el FMI el Gobierno planteó la dificultad de fijar metas trimestrales rígidas. Según argumentó, es más razonable establecer objetivos anuales, ya que los flujos pueden adelantarse o postergarse.","type":"text"},{"_id":"V3GEGTRXWBDKRBT47UMDCNZ7EY","additional_properties":{},"content":"Caputo insistió en que el equipo económico respeta el funcionamiento del mercado y que la política cambiaria seguirá siendo prudente. “Vamos a seguir con la misma dinámica”, concluyó, descartando cambios en el régimen de bandas en el corto plazo. 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Lo hizo en diálogo con el periodista Willy Laborda, en los estudios de El Cronista Stream.","type":"text"},{"_id":"SL3MWXV6YJFNLDIULPBFH46MPI","additional_properties":{},"content":"Caputo explicó que el objetivo del Ejecutivo es bajar impuestos y reducir regulaciones. Sin embargo, aclaró que para lograrlo primero se necesita aumentar la recaudación. En esa lógica, la ley de inocencia fiscal juega un papel central.","type":"text"},{"_id":"6RRUFSOUFVF2NEPF5MI64FPJTM","embed":{"config":{"tab":"noticia-interna","url":"/economia-politica/luis-caputo-en-pulso-financiero/"},"id":"custom_powerup_1772462287962","url":"/"},"subtype":"powerup_related","type":"custom_embed"},{"_id":"3GCTFJITAFHMBLBNKCGEDPDKPA","additional_properties":{},"content":"Según el ministro, con más recaudación se consigue con dos motores: mayor formalización del empleo y crecimiento económico sostenido. Ambos objetivos están atados a dos proyectos que el gobierno envió al Congreso de manera simultánea.","type":"text"},{"_id":"P3KXRI3KLBEVHPSLCB2ZDOZNDY","additional_properties":{},"content":"La reforma laboral apunta directamente a reducir el empleo informal. La ley de inocencia fiscal, en cambio, busca estimular el crecimiento vía inversión productiva. Para Caputo, no es casualidad que ambas iniciativas hayan llegado al Congreso al mismo tiempo.","type":"text"},{"_id":"JF6WG35HMJFA5OXNNXSQSKNQZ4","additional_properties":{},"content":"El ministro recurrió a la teoría del economista Robert Solow para fundamentar su posición. Según Solow, el crecimiento depende del nivel de ahorro y del desarrollo tecnológico. Caputo retomó ese argumento para sostener su propuesta.","type":"text"},{"_id":"V5SPOUR3QVBXFBYJEYTVONKBSI","embed":{"config":{"oembed":{"raw_oembed":{"html":"","id_extracted":"xa11t66","thumbnail_1080_url":"https://s1.dmcdn.net/v/a9LBk1ffQ2yGGBY8f/x1080","thumbnail_360_url":"https://s2.dmcdn.net/v/a9LBk1ffQ2ys8I8ip/x360","title":"Caputo explicó por qué la Ley de Inocencia Fiscal es clave","uploaded_time":1772461775,"url":"https://geo.dailymotion.com/player.html?video=xa11t66","width":550},"subtype":"dailymotion","type":"oembed_response"}},"id":"custom_powerup_1772462417788","url":"/"},"subtype":"powerup_dailymotion","type":"custom_embed"},{"_id":"WE6DKWM7NNH7PDTLZPIWFCQ4QA","additional_properties":{},"content":"“El ahorro ya lo tenemos, está ahí”, afirmó el ministro. El problema, según su diagnóstico, es que ese ahorro no está siendo canalizado hacia el sistema financiero. Sin crédito interno, la economía no puede crecer con base propia.","type":"text"},{"_id":"D7HH5WF7IBCM5BH4C4UFKQF4MU","additional_properties":{},"content":"La ley de Inocencia Fiscal buscaría precisamente corregir eso. Al llevar el ahorro al sector financiero, los bancos podrían prestar más a pymes, familias y grandes empresas, el acceso al crédito se ampliaría para todos los sectores.","type":"text"},{"_id":"PP65KLTL7BBTRKVUSOOWHW5EHY","additional_properties":{},"content":"Caputo destacó que esto permitiría reducir la dependencia del financiamiento externo. Argentina dejaría de depender tanto de los mercados internacionales para financiar su desarrollo. 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Sin embargo, lanzó una advertencia clara: “El gradualismo monetario, financiero y cambiario es tan inconveniente como el gradualismo en materia fiscal”.","type":"text"},{"_id":"JVG3RDTWQNENTHX3A7KAKWIF7A","additional_properties":{},"content":"El economista argumenta que, a diferencia de la apertura comercial, que tiene “costos friccionales” en la economía real, los mercados financieros se adaptan casi instantáneamente a las nuevas reglas. Por eso, insta a Milei a avanzar “rápido” hacia la unificación y liberalización del mercado, tal como prometió en campaña.","type":"text"},{"_id":"6ASIK6MNVJBHXPE6K3EE3NIOEU","additional_properties":{},"content":"La “regla de oro” para el ajuste fiscal","level":2,"type":"header"},{"_id":"TQO55IQWX5GK5OML5V4VY2MZ3I","additional_properties":{},"content":"Uno de los puntos más técnicos y punzantes del análisis de Cavallo es la relación entre la tasa de interés y el gasto público. Según sus cálculos, el peso de la deuda pública argentina (70% del PBI a fines de 2025) hace que cualquier movimiento en las tasas tenga un impacto directo en el déficit.","type":"text"},{"_id":"ZCKQXIRBTRDONPU7DATALT3KME","items":[{"_id":"XIPLJFNTU5GUXBBT6KB27ERLCE","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","content":"El cálculo de Cavallo: una reducción de apenas 100 puntos básicos (1%) en la tasa anual real permitiría al Tesoro ahorrar un 0,7% del PBI en intereses.","type":"text"},{"_id":"62ABYBBKVFCF5LXBW6QWJO45YI","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","content":"El objetivo: el exministro sostiene que una reforma monetaria integral podría bajar la tasa real en 300 puntos básicos, lo que se traduciría en un ahorro superior al 2% del PBI.","type":"text"}],"list_type":"unordered","type":"list"},{"_id":"MCKFE6QSCVERTBXSHAEQYCUOLI","additional_properties":{},"content":"“Sin una baja de la tasa real de interés, será muy difícil consolidar el ajuste”, sugiere el texto. 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Advirtió que la reestructuración productiva que genera la competencia externa puede ser “muy gravosa” si las empresas locales no cuentan con financiamiento barato para reconvertirse.","type":"text"},{"_id":"CP2BXHI5TRAYDLGTVMMI5OJJGE","additional_properties":{},"content":"“No hay que despreciar la complicación que crea a la apertura económica un nivel demasiado alto de la tasa real de interés”, señaló. En su visión, para competir con las importaciones (mencionó específicamente el desafío de China), el sector privado necesita acceso al crédito a tasas moderadas, algo imposible de lograr con el esquema actual de restricciones.","type":"text"},{"_id":"STU7BOQA4VAVDDT4YYOGRWSYVQ","additional_properties":{},"content":"La condición: salir del cepo y acumular reservas","level":2,"type":"header"},{"_id":"5DKEF7BES5AHPPMZV4QHW73QWE","additional_properties":{},"content":"Finalmente, el autor del Plan de Convertibilidad subrayó que la tasa real de interés no caerá a los niveles necesarios mientras persistan las trabas cambiarias. 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","type":"text"},{"_id":"OCR4HIJU6RCU5MY4EFJ5RDAPSM","additional_properties":{},"content":"En su último informe identifica más de 50 proyectos avanzados y estima que podrían movilizar más de u$s 50.000 millones en inversión en los próximos años. Para el banco, el punto no es solo sectorial, ya que, si la estabilidad fiscal por 30 años y la mejora en la rentabilidad efectiva de los proyectos se traducen en decisiones finales de inversión, el impacto potencial alcanza al riesgo país, al perfil de exportaciones y a la narrativa crediticia de los bonos soberanos.","type":"text"},{"_id":"W2DHSZSNTFDIVMFZUSRLHZV36I","embed":{"config":{"tab":"noticia-sugerida","url":"/finanzas-mercados/ganadores-y-perdedores-del-mercado-por-la-guerra-en-medio-oriente-que-acciones-se-disparan-y-cuales-caen/"},"id":"custom_powerup_1772473704152","url":"/"},"subtype":"powerup_related","type":"custom_embed"},{"_id":"MDS3C6Z6BZC2NARB4ZNZGUJ6QE","additional_properties":{},"content":"El gigante de Wall Street califica a la Argentina como una jurisdicción apta para inversiones mineras de horizonte largo, de 20 o 30 años al detectar un cambio profundo: “La convergencia entre previsibilidad regulatoria y rentabilidad económica de los proyectos”.","type":"text"},{"_id":"T5OZNYF23NAOVFLZIUHCIL7ZWM","additional_properties":{},"content":"En su informe titulado “Malbec & Minerals: Is Argentina the Next Mining Frontier?”, el giro en la política económica y el nuevo andamiaje regulatorio, con el RIGI como pieza central, puesto que garantiza estabilidad fiscal por tres décadas, altera la ecuación de riesgo de manera tangible. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"DOKJCMXCTFCVNKBAQVMJ4SMJQE","additional_properties":{},"content":"El banco destaca movimientos concretos: “Compañías globales vuelven a evaluar activos que estaban en pausa, reactivan estudios y reabren presupuestos de capital\". ","type":"text"},{"_id":"CETGVLCWBBHKBEGC5QWDFPPUZY","additional_properties":{"fullSizeResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/CETGVLCWBBHKBEGC5QWDFPPUZY.png?auth=4f380666e0d4f2cf0fc71a315922985cd07407c5bef699ca92feba6d4561aae7","galleries":[],"ingestionMethod":"manual","mime_type":"image/png","originalName":"Captura de pantalla 2026-03-02 135916.png","originalUrl":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcronista/CETGVLCWBBHKBEGC5QWDFPPUZY.png","proxyUrl":"/resizer/v2/CETGVLCWBBHKBEGC5QWDFPPUZY.png?auth=4f380666e0d4f2cf0fc71a315922985cd07407c5bef699ca92feba6d4561aae7","published":true,"resizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/CETGVLCWBBHKBEGC5QWDFPPUZY.png?auth=4f380666e0d4f2cf0fc71a315922985cd07407c5bef699ca92feba6d4561aae7","restricted":false,"thumbnailResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/CETGVLCWBBHKBEGC5QWDFPPUZY.png?auth=4f380666e0d4f2cf0fc71a315922985cd07407c5bef699ca92feba6d4561aae7&width=300","version":0,"template_id":1427},"address":{},"auth":{"1":"4f380666e0d4f2cf0fc71a315922985cd07407c5bef699ca92feba6d4561aae7"},"caption":"","created_date":"2026-03-02T17:59:59Z","credits":{"affiliation":[]},"height":307,"image_type":"photograph","last_updated_date":"2026-03-02T17:59:59Z","licensable":false,"owner":{"id":"elcronista","sponsored":false},"source":{"additional_properties":{"editor":"photo center"},"edit_url":"","system":"photo center"},"subtitle":"MS1","taxonomy":{"associated_tasks":[]},"type":"image","url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcronista/CETGVLCWBBHKBEGC5QWDFPPUZY.png","version":"0.10.9","width":520,"syndication":{}},{"_id":"ERGATHBPNNCG3P3P7DCJA67EKU","additional_properties":{},"content":"El informe plantea que el país transita “rápido” la transformación de ser una jurisdicción de alto riesgo, con controles, impuestos distorsivos y fricción regulatoria, a convertirse en un destino competitivo para inversión minera a gran escala. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"F5QBMPU6UZFABK7N5IPKKJ7664","additional_properties":{},"content":"Su argumento de fondo es bien financiero: “Si el RIGI reduce de forma material la carga tributaria efectiva de un proyecto y, además, promete estabilidad por 30 años, la mejora de flujo de caja y de valor presente puede ser lo suficientemente grande como para competirle dólares marginales a Chile y Perú”. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"USZFX4T2DRAYTMWESKAZJ7XH5A","additional_properties":{},"content":"El regreso a los mercados emergentes: MSCI","level":2,"type":"header"},{"_id":"RUXF2AV6DBAFPI6COOJG2BKQIE","additional_properties":{},"content":"El punto para inversores es que el banco no mira minería como una historia sectorial aislada, sino como un “bloque” que se enchufa a tres activos distintos: acciones, bonos soberanos y la narrativa de re-rating país que, en su lectura, desemboca recién hacia 2027–2028 con el potencial regreso al MSCI Emerging Markets. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"3RHQWKFUCZCXBHBPXUR5WPCVEI","additional_properties":{},"content":"En esa secuencia, el cobre ocupa el rol central: “El litio muestra tracción antes y valida la tesis, pero el cobre es el que cambia el tamaño del impacto macro y, por ende, el peso sobre riesgo país”.","type":"text"},{"_id":"7KFWS3MY6RDCVKAFAMXMB3XTXQ","additional_properties":{},"content":"Morgan Stanley cuantifica el cambio con un set de números ambicioso: “Identifica más de 50 proyectos mineros (cobre, litio, oro, plata, uranio) que ya pasaron la exploración y están en etapas de planes de mina o evaluaciones económicas”. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"KAZ3WY5AXZELPPY4EMDTPAUBSM","additional_properties":{},"content":"Con esa base, estima que los proyectos podrían movilizar más de u$s 50.000 millones de inversión (capex) y elevar exportaciones mineras a casi u$s 40.000 millones en 2035, desde unos u$s 5000 millones en 2025. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"LOGWLPFSFFA3ZFYWBYZXFOUE6U","additional_properties":{"fullSizeResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/LOGWLPFSFFA3ZFYWBYZXFOUE6U.png?auth=3827de72aa8cd7d1e084c95bca2e71636f9aa3996df0de53f871120bd350746c","galleries":[],"ingestionMethod":"manual","mime_type":"image/png","originalName":"Captura de pantalla 2026-03-02 135751.png","originalUrl":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcronista/LOGWLPFSFFA3ZFYWBYZXFOUE6U.png","proxyUrl":"/resizer/v2/LOGWLPFSFFA3ZFYWBYZXFOUE6U.png?auth=3827de72aa8cd7d1e084c95bca2e71636f9aa3996df0de53f871120bd350746c","published":true,"resizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/LOGWLPFSFFA3ZFYWBYZXFOUE6U.png?auth=3827de72aa8cd7d1e084c95bca2e71636f9aa3996df0de53f871120bd350746c","restricted":false,"thumbnailResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/LOGWLPFSFFA3ZFYWBYZXFOUE6U.png?auth=3827de72aa8cd7d1e084c95bca2e71636f9aa3996df0de53f871120bd350746c&width=300","version":0,"template_id":1427},"address":{},"auth":{"1":"3827de72aa8cd7d1e084c95bca2e71636f9aa3996df0de53f871120bd350746c"},"caption":"","created_date":"2026-03-02T17:59:59Z","credits":{"affiliation":[]},"height":229,"image_type":"photograph","last_updated_date":"2026-03-02T17:59:59Z","licensable":false,"owner":{"id":"elcronista","sponsored":false},"source":{"additional_properties":{"editor":"photo center"},"edit_url":"","system":"photo center"},"subtitle":"MS4","taxonomy":{"associated_tasks":[]},"type":"image","url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcronista/LOGWLPFSFFA3ZFYWBYZXFOUE6U.png","version":"0.10.9","width":380,"syndication":{}},{"_id":"FOLZGN2EPVB6ZNRUEJCUX5ZKMY","additional_properties":{},"content":"El cobre como catalizador del equity","level":2,"type":"header"},{"_id":"2GYZKCRSRJGYLL72YMJLPPXTUM","additional_properties":{},"content":"En acciones, el informe no propone “comprar Argentina minera” como un flujo inmediato de resultados. Propone comprar opcionalidad: activos greenfield (proyecto desde cero) y brownfield (proyectos ya en marcha) que, si avanzan a permisos, financiamiento y decisión final de inversión, pueden alterar el perfil de crecimiento de compañías y forzar un re-rating de múltiplos. La clave es que, en cobre, Morgan Stanley advierte que no espera producción significativa hasta 2030. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"OKMS6MBVUFENDAYSM6CBA26QGM","additional_properties":{},"content":"En litio, Morgan Stanley sostiene que el cambio ya se ve antes por ciclos de desarrollo más cortos. Remarca que, de ocho minas operativas, seis comenzaron en 2023 o después, y que el pipeline de proyectos más allá de exploración podría llevar la producción de oro blanco por encima de 500.000 toneladas por año. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"ZH4X2GQU6RA3PGOOZ2OGWMHTMI","additional_properties":{},"content":"Pero el documento lo pone como “primer beneficiario”, no como el techo de la historia. El verdadero “transformacional upside” para el país, en su lectura, lo trae el cobre, según el gigante de Wall Street.","type":"text"},{"_id":"RCMMCKWS7VBDDFPQS4URJ4P6VM","additional_properties":{"fullSizeResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/RCMMCKWS7VBDDFPQS4URJ4P6VM.png?auth=9f3e52cff979e112891567bcebc9f44898e41019f6078c356eb628c1c4900735","galleries":[],"ingestionMethod":"manual","mime_type":"image/png","originalName":"Captura de pantalla 2026-03-02 135940.png","originalUrl":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcronista/RCMMCKWS7VBDDFPQS4URJ4P6VM.png","proxyUrl":"/resizer/v2/RCMMCKWS7VBDDFPQS4URJ4P6VM.png?auth=9f3e52cff979e112891567bcebc9f44898e41019f6078c356eb628c1c4900735","published":true,"resizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/RCMMCKWS7VBDDFPQS4URJ4P6VM.png?auth=9f3e52cff979e112891567bcebc9f44898e41019f6078c356eb628c1c4900735","restricted":false,"thumbnailResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/RCMMCKWS7VBDDFPQS4URJ4P6VM.png?auth=9f3e52cff979e112891567bcebc9f44898e41019f6078c356eb628c1c4900735&width=300","version":0,"template_id":1427},"address":{},"auth":{"1":"9f3e52cff979e112891567bcebc9f44898e41019f6078c356eb628c1c4900735"},"caption":"","created_date":"2026-03-02T17:59:59Z","credits":{"affiliation":[]},"height":250,"image_type":"photograph","last_updated_date":"2026-03-02T17:59:59Z","licensable":false,"owner":{"id":"elcronista","sponsored":false},"source":{"additional_properties":{"editor":"photo center"},"edit_url":"","system":"photo center"},"subtitle":"MS2","taxonomy":{"associated_tasks":[]},"type":"image","url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcronista/RCMMCKWS7VBDDFPQS4URJ4P6VM.png","version":"0.10.9","width":365,"syndication":{}},{"_id":"GAOC2D626ZE47HQAMNRRZMOA2Y","additional_properties":{},"content":"Bonos soberanos: minería como pilar de flujos externos ","level":2,"type":"header"},{"_id":"CIGNBPPRFZFZZLPRW4TMOIEBJA","additional_properties":{},"content":"Donde el informe se vuelve particularmente interesante para inversores de renta fija es en cómo conecta minería con solvencia externa. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"XQL75424JZDTTPHIPYXMKOB24E","additional_properties":{},"content":"Morgan Stanley parte de una realidad: “Los bonos externos argentinos todavía pricean riesgo crediticio alto, y el país sigue vulnerable mientras dependa de flujos financieros para navegar amortizaciones y shocks externos”. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"UQJPY2ZAIJELBKUE242CW3Z334","additional_properties":{},"content":"Bajo esa lente, cualquier motor que sume divisas de forma persistente y diversifique la matriz exportadora mejora el “credit story”. Y ahí mete a minería como tercer pilar de una narrativa de flujos externos junto a agro y, sobre todo, energía.","type":"text"},{"_id":"7LJY7LHRJFDQFNY3A52QXGF76E","additional_properties":{},"content":"Para 2026, sostiene el informe, la minería podría aportar unos u$s 5000 millones extra a la cuenta corriente. Pero ese empujón no viene porque la Argentina produzca mucho más, sino porque los precios internacionales están altos. Es decir, se exporta más caro, no necesariamente mucho más volumen, puesto que el peso lo tienen metales como el oro y la plata.","type":"text"},{"_id":"LTARNEB4XVCB3FX5QZMV5L7Q6A","additional_properties":{},"content":"El cambio grande viene después. Cuando entren en producción los grandes proyectos de cobre, que llevan más años de construcción, el impacto ya no dependerá tanto del precio, sino de que la Argentina va a estar vendiendo muchas más toneladas. Ahí el salto es estructural. Morgan Stanley estima que hacia 2035 el país podría producir alrededor de 1,2 millones de toneladas de cobre por año y generar exportaciones cercanas a u$s 26.000 millones anuales solo por cobre.","type":"text"},{"_id":"D4NKZWLBWNATNBSJCSVN7G6WHQ","additional_properties":{},"content":"Ese es el puente hacia los bonos: más metales (sumados al superávit energético en ascenso) implican un balance externo menos frágil, más capacidad de acumulación de reservas y, por extensión, menor “Argentina risk” estructural. ","type":"text"},{"_id":"OHUFVFIBM5ESDFYSHCOPLMC3UY","additional_properties":{},"content":"En esa línea, el documento concluye con un mensaje explícito de posicionamiento y recomienda que los inversores se mantengan constructivos en los bonos en dólares de la Argentina, apoyándose en un outlook de commodities favorable, un contexto externo más amigable para crédito soberano emergente y una lectura de alineación política con EE.UU. que también juega en la percepción de riesgo.","type":"text"},{"_id":"LKB72TJR5BCDFNYT6FEPWPM2MI","additional_properties":{},"content":"El informe también deja claro qué puede romper la tesis. Una baja fuerte de precios de commodities puede retrasar o congelar decisiones de inversión y achicar el valor de la opción. Y, sobre todo, la incertidumbre política alrededor de elecciones puede afectar expectativas de continuidad del RIGI y del sendero de reformas.","type":"text"}],"content_restrictions":{"content_code":"closed"},"created_date":"2026-03-02T17:46:25.291Z","credits":{"by":[{"_id":"santiago-escobar","type":"author","version":"0.5.8","name":"Santiago Escobar","image":{"url":"https://author-service-images-prod-us-east-1.publishing.aws.arc.pub/elcronista/a9f713a6-dc5e-4043-b146-d59fca9c18a3.png","version":"0.5.8","type":"image","auth":{"1":"5a686e2166182a92550a6b9143563e9adffed8bd904f9718dcb54c572d1ff74d"}},"description":"Cubre mercados internacionales, inversiones y criptomonedas. 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Necesitamos que aumente la recaudación. ¿Cómo aumenta la recaudación? Con mayor formalización del empleo y con crecimiento“, enumeró.","type":"text"},{"_id":"BWJZJ4GXF5FYDEOMB3MRIK7FWE","additional_properties":{},"content":"Por ello, la Ley de Modernización Laboral apunta a generar mayor empleo “de calidad”, mientras que la Ley de Inocencia Fiscal busca “mayor crecimiento a través de canalizar el ahorro hacia la inversión para que se desarrollen los diferentes sectores productivos”.","type":"text"},{"_id":"ZJ6E6OYWNVCMNL2RRH7JIUDDAA","additional_properties":{},"content":"“El ahorro está ahí, es cuestión de llevarlo al sector financiero para que lo pueda empezar a prestar y que todos los argentinos tengan acceso al crédito”, continuó.","type":"text"},{"_id":"H4U7CPQDQRD2VEUD3ES7B24HWY","embed":{"config":{"tab":"noticia-interna","url":"/finanzas-mercados/caputo-hablo-del-dolar-y-anticipo-que-pasara-con-el-esquema-de-bandas-cambiarias/"},"id":"custom_powerup_1772468762211","url":"/"},"subtype":"powerup_related","type":"custom_embed"},{"_id":"WLMWUYYZLZATJE3QAMVMEUCDJE","additional_properties":{},"content":"Así, de la mano de la expectativa del Gobierno de que la población vuelque sus “dólares del colchón” a la economía, Caputo destacó el rol de la reforma laboral en el crecimiento futuro y la contratación de trabajadores formales.","type":"text"},{"_id":"4JCYPPIXT5CPLNNTIW246C6H7E","additional_properties":{},"content":"Para él, la ley que el Congreso aprobó el pasado viernes tiene tres puntos clave para impulsar el empleo registrado. En primer lugar, destacó el Fondo de Asistencia Laboral (FAL), clave para el Palacio de Hacienda y las empresas en el plano fiscal.","type":"text"},{"_id":"KQUNNKGHJZD7BJE2C6WAQWV3EI","additional_properties":{},"content":"“Ahora las empresas van a poder contar con un fondo propio que le va a alivianar si el día de mañana un empleador decide despedir a un empleado”, detalló Caputo. Esto, además, aporta previsibilidad, según el ministro, porque “el empleador ya sabe cuánto es la cuenta” final a pagar ante un despido.","type":"text"},{"_id":"72Y4ARWPSNFA7NWN5YYSPF3OVM","embed":{"config":{"oembed":{"raw_oembed":{"html":"","id_extracted":"xa11t66","thumbnail_1080_url":"https://s2.dmcdn.net/v/a9LBk1ffRgDBs1lsZ/x1080","thumbnail_360_url":"https://s1.dmcdn.net/v/a9LBk1ffRgDQwgAiW/x360","title":"Caputo explicó por qué la Ley de Inocencia Fiscal es clave","uploaded_time":1772461775,"url":"https://geo.dailymotion.com/player.html?video=xa11t66","width":550},"subtype":"dailymotion","type":"oembed_response"}},"id":"custom_powerup_1772469044537","url":"/"},"subtype":"powerup_dailymotion","type":"custom_embed"},{"_id":"NMLPEJVYONHDRDV3SU4MDL5BP4","additional_properties":{},"content":"Por otro lado, destacó la reducción de contribuciones patronales para los empleadores que “blanqueen” vínculos laborales. “Pasas de pagar un 18% a un 2%” de aportes, más allá de ART y aporte previsional.","type":"text"},{"_id":"TLKMM24UKVFW7FTMKHVF5XF6J4","additional_properties":{},"content":"“Ahora vos como empleador prácticamente no tenés ningún incentivo para tener a alguien en negro”, explicó, y agregó: “Lo que nosotros buscamos con esto es la formalización del empleo y que el problema no sea más en Argentina si te despiden”.","type":"text"},{"_id":"IFYZRYJIRJBKFI7LHPMHZW3A2I","additional_properties":{},"content":"“Porque, en tanto y en cuanto vos puedas conseguir empleo, ese problema disminuye. 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