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Florida is facing several waterlogged days. Starting Tuesday, August 4, 2026, the state’s west coast, with the Tampa area as its epicenter, will face three consecutive days of rain and thunderstorms, with chances climbing to 75% and totals that could lead to flash flooding.
August’s big storm is coming
The storm is being caused by an almost stationary front that, combined with the abundant moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico, is fueling repeated rounds of storms over western and northern Florida. Moving very slowly, the system does not dump its rain and move on, but instead reactivates the rain day after day.
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is keeping Florida’s Gulf Coast as a persistent focus of heavy rain, in an environment of high humidity that favors the ongoing development of storms coming off the sea.
Storms and heavy rain for 72 straight hours
A succession of days with storms and a high chance of rain is expected. According to the forecast for the Tampa area, right on the west coast:
- Tuesday, August 4: about a 65% chance of rain and thunderstorms, with highs near 30 C.
- Wednesday, August 5: the chance rises to 75%, in the most active stretch of the storm system.
- Thursday, August 6: it remains around 75%, with a very unstable atmosphere.
Only by Friday do the chances begin to drop, to around 35%, which would mark the end of the most intense episode.
Which areas are most exposed
The main focus is on Florida’s west coast, with the Tampa-St. Petersburg metropolitan area the most affected, along with the north of the state and the Big Bend region. These are the areas where Gulf moisture and the stationary front coincide most strongly, generating the most persistent storms.