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The Southwest flooding crisis is far from over. After several days of heavy rain caused rivers to rise, inundated homes and forced rescues, officials in New Mexico are preparing for a costly recovery while keeping a close watch on the weather.
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham estimated that recovery expenses in New Mexico could reach $300 million, including debris removal and repairs to roads and bridges. President Donald Trump also announced federal disaster assistance for the state, although New Mexico will have to cover 25% of eligible costs.
The threat extends beyond New Mexico. The Four Corners region, where Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah meet, has experienced widespread flooding, damaged infrastructure and evacuations. More rain in the forecast could complicate recovery efforts.
New Mexico flooding: why the damage could reach $300 million
The scale of the damage reflects more than flooded homes. Roads have been washed out, bridges and other infrastructure need repairs, and some communities have faced power outages or been cut off by rising water.
At least two people died in New Mexico during the flooding, while hundreds of residents were rescued. In San Juan County, local officials reported that between 200 and 300 people had been rescued in recent days.
Along the San Juan River, families returned to find muddy water inside their homes, damaged furniture and floors that may need to be replaced. Some residents have had to stay with relatives while they determine whether their properties are safe to occupy.
The consequences have also spread into neighboring states. In southern Colorado, flooding affected roads and homes around Pagosa Springs. In southeastern Utah, residents of Bluff faced another evacuation as water levels rose along the San Juan River.
The recovery estimate remains a projection rather than a final accounting. The total will depend on the extent of the damage identified in the coming days and the resources needed to restore roads, bridges and other public infrastructure.
New Mexico weather forecast: when more rain could arrive
The latest National Weather Service forecast, issued by the Albuquerque office on October 27 and updated overnight, points to a relatively quieter period before unsettled weather returns later in the week. River flooding is expected to linger in parts of central and northern New Mexico.
Thursday, October 29, and Friday, October 30
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more likely across southeastern New Mexico from Thursday night into Friday. The forecast calls for widespread moderate rain, with the possibility of locally heavier amounts.
Forecasters estimate that many areas east of a line extending from Roswell to Tucumcari could receive around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain, with localized totals potentially reaching 2 to 3 inches.
Additional showers and thunderstorms could develop over central and western parts of the state Friday afternoon and night. Even if rainfall rates are not especially intense, saturated ground could allow water to accumulate and flooding to develop more quickly.
Saturday, October 31, and Sunday, November 1
The risk could expand again over western New Mexico and the broader Four Corners region. Weather systems approaching from the western United States and the Pacific are expected to bring another round of precipitation from Saturday night into Sunday.
Current projections suggest 0.5 to 1 inch of rain across parts of western New Mexico, with amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches possible near higher terrain. However, the location and intensity of the heaviest rainfall remain uncertain.
Higher elevations in northern New Mexico could also see snow, particularly above 10,000 feet, as temperatures fall.