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Millions of Social Security beneficiaries have a new estimate of what their 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) could look like. While the increase has not been finalized, the latest projection suggests recipients may receive a larger benefit boost than they did this year.
The new estimate comes from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), an advocacy group that closely tracks inflation and Social Security benefits. The organization projects a 3.8% COLA for 2027, though the official adjustment will not be announced by the Social Security Administration until October after additional inflation data becomes available.
Latest 2027 Social Security COLA projection
According to TSCL’s latest forecast, the 2027 Social Security COLA remains at 3.8%, which would be one percentage point higher than the 2.8% adjustment beneficiaries received for 2026. If that estimate holds, the average monthly retirement benefit would increase by nearly $74, bringing the average payment to about $2,011.
The projection is based on current inflation trends and could still change over the coming months. Rising or falling consumer prices before the end of the third quarter may affect the final percentage announced by the SSA.
When Will the Official Social Security COLA Be Announced?
SSA calculates the annual COLA using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) during July, August, and September. Because those inflation figures are not yet complete, the current 3.8% estimate remains a projection rather than an official increase.
The final 2027 COLA is expected to be announced in October 2026. If approved, the higher benefit amount would take effect with Social Security payments issued in January 2027, helping retirees, disabled workers, survivors, and other beneficiaries keep up with changes in the cost of living.