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Florida is heading into several soggy days. Starting Thursday, August 6, 2026, the west coast of the state, with the Tampa area as the epicenter, will face a day of rain and thunderstorms, with chances climbing to 75% and totals that could lead to flash flooding.
The August storm is coming
The cause of the storm is an almost stationary front that, combined with the abundant moisture moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, is fueling repeated rounds of thunderstorms over western and northern Florida. Moving very slowly, the system does not dump its rain and move on, but instead reactivates the rain day after day.
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps Florida’s Gulf Coast as a persistent focus of heavy rain, in an environment of high humidity that favors the ongoing development of storms coming in from the sea.
Storms and heavy rain for 24 straight hours
A succession of days with storms and a high chance of rain is expected. According to the forecast for the Tampa area, on the west coast:
- Thursday, August 6: the chance remains around 75%, with a very unstable atmosphere.
Only by Friday will the odds begin to drop, to around 35%, which would mark the end of the most intense phase.
Which areas are most exposed
The main focus is on Florida’s west coast, with the Tampa-St. Petersburg metropolitan area the most affected, as well as the northern part of the state and the Big Bend region. These are the areas where Gulf moisture and the stationary front come together most strongly, generating the most persistent storms.