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The National Weather Service (NWS) has released its November 2026 climate outlook, offering an early look at temperature and precipitation trends across the United States ahead of Thanksgiving. The holiday falls on Thursday, November 26, according to the federal holiday calendar.
The outlook points to a greater likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the northern US and along both coasts. It also indicates an increased chance of above-normal precipitation across much of the southern US and the East Coast, although these trends do not predict the exact weather conditions expected on Thanksgiving Day.
Temperatures could be warmer than usual across much of the US
The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) favors above-normal temperatures across the northern two-thirds of the contiguous United States and along both coasts in November. The strongest signals appear across Washington, the interior Northwest, the Northern Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes.
However, the outlook does not point to warmer-than-average conditions everywhere. The CPC indicates equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures across the Southwest, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Central Plains and Intermountain West.
Forecast uncertainty is also higher in New England, Montana, and North Dakota, where cooler periods remain possible.
Rainfall chances vary by region
The November outlook favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern US and the East Coast. The CPC reports particularly strong model agreement over parts of the Southeast, where the probability of above-normal precipitation reaches 60% to 70% in some areas.
By contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across parts of the northern Intermountain West, the Northern Plains, and the Great Lakes. The outlook does not identify specific days when rain or snow may occur, so it cannot establish whether Thanksgiving travel or outdoor gatherings will be affected.
When will the Thanksgiving forecast become clearer?
The CPC’s monthly outlook describes broad climate trends rather than day-by-day weather conditions. It is based on climate models, sea surface temperature patterns, El Niño-related influences, and historical trends, and compares expected conditions with the 1991–2020 climate averages.
The agency has scheduled an updated November outlook for October 31. More specific forecasts for Thanksgiving will become useful closer to the holiday, as the NWS updates its shorter-range guidance. Until then, the monthly outlook should be treated as an indication of possible regional trends, not a forecast for November 26 itself.