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Millions of Social Security recipients are heading toward a larger raise next year. Two widely cited estimates put the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) at 3.5% and 3.6%, which would be the biggest since the 8.7% increase in 2023. This year’s adjustment was 2.8%.

Nothing is final yet. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is expected to announce the official figure on October 14, 2026, after the September inflation data are released. The calculation uses the average CPI-W for July, August and September, and September is the only month still missing.

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2027 Social Security COLA estimates

The data already published points upward. The CPI-W rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending in August, compared with 3.4% in July. Separately, gasoline prices were 27.4% higher than a year earlier in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Social Security benefits could see their biggest increase in four years.
Social Security benefits could see their biggest increase in four years.

Forecasters don’t fully agree. AARP estimates 3.6%, while The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates 3.5%. Other analysts have offered lower projections. A 3.5% COLA would increase the average Social Security retirement benefit by roughly $72 a month, based on the SSA’s January 2026 average of $2,071.

Higher benefits won’t necessarily translate into the same increase in retirees’ disposable income. The CPI-W tracks the spending patterns of urban wage earners and clerical workers, rather than retirees specifically. In addition, Medicare Part B premiums are projected to rise to $209.50 a month in 2027, from $202.90 in 2026.