The first snowfall forecasts for winter 2026/2027 are beginning to show a distinct pattern across the United States. According to the latest long-range models analyzed by Severe Weather, the strongest snow potential is concentrated in parts of the West, the central U.S., and the southern tier.
The outlook comes as El Niño continues to strengthen. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is now a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
Where could see the most snow?
The areas with the highest snowfall potential include:
- California’s Sierra Nevada, particularly at higher elevations.
- Utah and the Great Basin, where above-normal snowfall is projected in parts of the region.
- The central and southern Rockies, including parts of Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico.
- The Central Plains and parts of the Midwest, where the models indicate potential for above-average snowfall.
- The Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, particularly as the season progresses.
The ECMWF model analyzed by Severe Weather points to a potentially slower start to the snow season, followed by greater snowfall potential in January and February across parts of the central and eastern United States.
What about the Northeast and Northwest?
The outlook is not uniformly snowy across the country. Parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast show below-normal snowfall signals in some of the long-range projections.
However, these forecasts should not be interpreted as a prediction that a region will receive no snow. Seasonal models estimate broad patterns and anomalies rather than the exact amount of snow a particular city or state will receive.
For now, the main signal is that a strong El Niño could shift storm tracks and increase snowfall potential across portions of the southern and central United States, while reducing it in some northern areas.