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The central United States is bracing for several unsettled days. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts severe thunderstorms with hail, heavy rain, and strong wind gusts between Tuesday and Wednesday across a broad swath stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Great Plains.

August’s big storm is coming

The system will bring severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, heavy rain, and potentially damaging wind gusts. The main threats identified by meteorologists are hail and wind gusts, which in the most intense storms can reach severe levels.

Alerta naranja por tormentas extremas en varias provincias del país: lluvias intensas y vientos huracanados.

The scenario brings together the classic ingredients for strong thunderstorms: a large amount of energy available in the atmosphere and marked temperature gradients aloft, driven by disturbances in the middle levels of the atmosphere. The combination favors the development of cells capable of becoming severe.

48 hours of thunderstorms with hail and heavy rain with wind gusts of 56 mph

To gauge the level of danger, it is worth knowing the official criteria. NOAA and the SPC consider a storm to be severe when it produces at least one of these three phenomena:

  • Hail 2.5 centimeters (1 inch) in diameter or larger
  • Wind gusts of 93 km/h (58 mph) or more
  • A tornado

During Tuesday and Wednesday, the forecast threats are hail and wind gusts, which may reach or exceed the 58 mph threshold in the strongest storms.

Which areas are most affected by the storm?

The risk area extends across the central and central-eastern part of the country, with two main focus areas:

  • Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians: storms with severe wind gusts are the main threat in this more eastern swath.
  • Great Plains (western Nebraska and southwestern South Dakota): here the instability axis favors scattered afternoon storms, with hail and strong gusts as standout risks.

More isolated gusts and hail could also occur from the central and northern Plains toward the Midwest, expanding the area under watch.