En esta noticia
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives could come down to 22 toss-up races in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, and President Donald Trump’s Republican Party is defending 16 of them, according to poll aggregator RealClearPolitics.
The political news and polling site rates every House race by how likely it is to change hands. A toss-up is a contest where neither party has a clear advantage. Democrats hold the other six seats on the list.
All 435 House seats are on the ballot this year. Whichever party wins the chamber will shape how much of Trump’s agenda can get through Congress in the final two years of his term.
Which 22 US House races are toss-ups?
The toss-ups stretch from Maine to Arizona, with Colorado and Florida each accounting for three. Six are open seats, meaning no incumbent is running.
Republicans are defending these 16 seats:
- Arizona’s 2nd District, held by Rep. Eli Crane
- Colorado’s 3rd District, held by Rep. Jeff Hurd
- Colorado’s 4th District, held by Rep. Lauren Boebert
- Colorado’s 5th District, held by Rep. Jeff Crank
- Iowa’s 2nd District, open seat
- Kentucky’s 6th District, open seat
- Missouri’s 2nd District, held by Rep. Ann Wagner
- Montana’s 1st District, held by Rep. Ryan Zinke
- New Jersey’s 2nd District, held by Rep. Jeff Van Drew
- New York’s 17th District, held by Rep. Mike Lawler
- North Carolina’s 11th District, open seat
- Ohio’s 7th District, held by Rep. Max Miller
- Pennsylvania’s 1st District, held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick
- Texas’ 23rd District, open seat
- Virginia’s 1st District, held by Rep. Rob Wittman
- Wisconsin’s 1st District, held by Rep. Bryan Steil
Democrats are defending these six:
- Florida’s 9th District, held by Rep. Darren Soto
- Florida’s 14th District, held by Rep. Kathy Castor
- Florida’s 22nd District, open seat
- Maine’s 2nd District, held by Rep. Jared Golden
- North Carolina’s 1st District, held by Rep. Don Davis
- Texas’ 35th District, open seat
RealClearPolitics updates its ratings as new polls come in, so the list can still change before Election Day.
Could the toss-up races decide who controls the US House?
Yes, if the rest of the map tightens. A party needs 218 seats for a majority, and toss-ups are the races most likely to tip a close count.
On RealClearPolitics’ current map, though, Democrats are ahead even without them. The site counts 226 seats as solid, likely or leaning Democratic and 187 as solid, likely or leaning Republican. Its average projects a Democratic gain of 24 seats.
National polling points the same way. The generic ballot asks voters which party they’d back for Congress without naming candidates. Surveys released Oct. 18-19 and compiled by RealClearPolitics show Democrats ahead by 4 to 12 percentage points.
Seats that lean one way can still move in the final two weeks. That’s why campaign money has been pouring into the most competitive districts.
What would losing the US House mean for Donald Trump?
A Democratic majority could stop bills Trump wants passed. Legislation has to clear both the House and the Senate before it reaches the president’s desk.
Democrats would also take over every House committee, including the panels that oversee the administration. Committee chairs can hold hearings and subpoena Cabinet officials and federal agencies.
Spending is another pressure point. Tax and spending bills traditionally start in the House, giving its majority a stronger hand in budget fights with the White House.
The Senate is a separate contest. Thirty-five of its 100 seats are on the ballot, and Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take control.