En esta noticia
- The first data point: what the S&P 500 does
- Bonds help show what’s behind stocks
- The Federal Reserve: the link between rates and stocks
- U.S. employment data arrives three days later
- U.S. CPI can shift rate expectations
- After the election, earnings return to the spotlight
- Nasdaq: What is happening with big tech
- Does the move reach all of Wall Street?
- VIX: How much nervousness is left in the market
- A guide for the coming weeks
- What to watch the day after the midterms
The U.S. midterm elections end this Tuesday, and starting with the next trading session, Wall Street will have to process a concrete result. For investors, a new phase begins: attention shifts from the election backdrop to the variables that could sustain or change the direction of the markets.
The first reaction in the S&P 500 will be the most visible signal. After that, investors will need to watch bonds, expectations for Federal Reserve rates, jobs and inflation data, and finally corporate earnings.
The challenge for investors will be to determine how much of Wall Street’s move is driven by the election outcome and how much by the factors that were already shaping the market.
The first data point: what the S&P 500 does
The S&P 500 will be the first benchmark for measuring Wall Street’s reaction.
The index tracks the performance of 500 large U.S. companies and is one of the main gauges of the U.S. stock market.
The first trading session after the election will show how prices adjust to the outcome. A strong reaction can signal that the result surprised the market or that it changed an expectation investors had already built in.
LPL Financial calculated that, since 1970, the S&P 500 has posted an average return of 14.1% in the six months after midterm elections, a historical reference that helps put the result in context.
Bonds help show what’s behind stocks
After the S&P 500, it’s worth watching the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, an important benchmark for interest rates across the U.S. economy.
Its yield also affects how investors value stocks, which is why it’s best to look at stocks and bonds together.
If the S&P 500 rises while the 10-year Treasury yield falls, the market may be pricing in more favorable financial conditions. If stocks rise while yields also climb, the explanation may lie elsewhere: expectations for stronger growth, better corporate earnings or a favorable reading of the political outcome.
Bond yields can also reflect expectations for inflation, growth, government spending and the deficit.
The Federal Reserve: the link between rates and stocks
The Federal Reserve goes into the midterms with the federal funds rate in a range of 3.75% to 4%, after its Oct. 28 meeting. The central bank said at the time that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace and that inflation remained elevated.
The election result could also change expectations for the Fed’s next moves. Rates are a key variable for stocks: higher rates for longer usually pressure valuations, especially for growth companies, while a lower-rate environment can support them.
U.S. employment data arrives three days later
The economic calendar adds an important release just three days after the election. On Friday, Nov. 6, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October U.S. jobs report. The report will include job creation, the unemployment rate, and wage trends.
The data could move Wall Street because it helps gauge the strength of the economy and also influences expectations for Federal Reserve rates.
The latest available report showed the creation of 29,000 jobs in September and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
For investors, the report will be especially interesting because it will arrive while the market is still digesting the election outcome.
The focus will be on three numbers: jobs, unemployment, and wages. It will also matter how they compare with market forecasts.
U.S. CPI can shift rate expectations
The next major release will be the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for October, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish on Tuesday, Nov. 10.
The latest reading showed year-over-year inflation of 3.7% in September, while core inflation rose 2.6%.
For Wall Street, the report will have a concrete effect: It will help determine whether expectations for Federal Reserve rates stay on the path investors had anticipated.
In addition, trends in food, energy, housing, and other components can offer different clues about how persistent inflation remains.
After the election, earnings return to the spotlight
With the election result absorbed, the market returns to a basic question: what companies are earning and how much they expect to earn in the months ahead.
Earnings reports track revenue, margins, earnings per share, and each company’s outlook. For investors, those numbers help show whether stock prices are supported by business results.
This is especially important among the major technology companies.
During 2026, much of the focus was on huge investments in artificial intelligence. Now, the market is also looking for signs of how much of that spending can turn into higher revenue, productivity, and profits.
Nasdaq: What is happening with big tech
The Nasdaq offers a specific read on technology and growth stocks.
These companies are often especially sensitive to rate moves because a significant share of their valuation depends on earnings expected over the next several years.
That’s why if the Nasdaq moves very differently from the S&P 500 after the election, investors will need to look at what is happening at the same time with bond yields and earnings expectations.
For companies tied to artificial intelligence, investors will also need to track results and investment plans.
A drop in the Nasdaq can have very different causes: from higher rates to a reassessment of expectations for tech earnings.
The key is to find that explanation before drawing a conclusion about the market.
Does the move reach all of Wall Street?
The Russell 2000 can help answer another question. The index tracks smaller U.S. companies and makes it possible to see what is happening outside the group of large companies that carry significant weight in the S&P 500.
Comparing the two indexes shows whether the move is spreading across different groups of stocks or is concentrated in the largest companies.
Market breadth offers another clue. If many stocks rise along with the S&P 500, the advance is broad. If the index rises while a significant number of companies lag, the move has a narrower base.
VIX: How much nervousness is left in the market
The VIX measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 and serves as a reference for tracking the level of tension among investors.
After the election, a drop in the VIX together with a stabilization in stocks, may indicate that some of the short-term uncertainty is behind the market.
If the VIX rises, investors will need to look for the factor behind the added nervousness. It could be rates, economic data, corporate results, or another event.
A guide for the coming weeks
After the midterms, tracking Wall Street can be organized into four levels.
First, stocks and bonds
The S&P 500 will show the initial reaction, and the 10-year Treasury will help explain what the market is pricing in on financial conditions.
Second, the Federal Reserve
Expectations for the next rate decisions will be essential for interpreting stock moves.
Third, U.S. economic data
The Nov. 6 jobs report and the Nov. 10 CPI will be the first major tests for that view.
Fourth, companies
Earnings, margins, investment, and forecasts will show whether the fundamentals supporting stock prices are holding up.
Then come the additional signals: Nasdaq, Russell 2000, market breadth, VIX, the dollar, oil, and sectors.
What to watch the day after the midterms
The first signal will be in the S&P 500. After that, investors will need to watch what bonds and rate expectations do. In the days that follow, U.S. jobs and inflation will show whether the view of the Federal Reserve is changing. Later on, company earnings and forecasts will show whether stock prices are backed by results.
The key will be to connect the data points: a rise in stocks means something different if rates fall; a drop in the Nasdaq is read differently if tech earnings keep growing; a market decline may have a different source if the VIX also rises.
The midterms clear away part of the political uncertainty. From there, Wall Street will again show how much rates, the economy, and corporate earnings weigh on stock prices.