En esta noticia
A new scientific study warns that, if the planet were to suffer a severe environmental collapse, humanity could lose half of its inhabitants by 2064. The research — published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals — is not a prophecy: it mathematically models how vulnerable the world population is to crises of climate, pandemics, conflicts, or resource scarcity.
The work was developed by physicist Kostya Trachenko of Queen Mary University of London, together with his coauthor. They applied a nonlinear equation originally designed to describe materials such as glass and showed that the same mathematics reproduces the major human population cycles, from the Neolithic to the present day.
What does the mathematical model predict about the collapse of the world population?
The mathematical model —called the Trachenko-Zaccone equation— can shift growth regimes using a single parameter. This allows it to reproduce both the explosive expansion of the industrial era and the slowdown that has characterized global growth since 1970.
The most extreme scenario starts from a hypothetical assumption: that the Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity falls to 2 billion people. Under that condition, the model projects that the global population could be cut in half by 2064. The authors stress that this is not a prediction, but a tool for measuring the system’s vulnerability to abrupt changes.
How does this study affect the way we understand the future of humanity?
The model confirms that the current population trajectory is relatively stable and does not point to an imminent collapse. What it does establish is that small changes in environmental conditions could trigger very different dynamics within the same mathematical framework.
What the model can —and cannot— say
- Predicts: that population dynamics are highly sensitive to abrupt changes in the planet’s carrying capacity.
- Does not predict: that collapse will occur; the 2064 scenario is hypothetical and would require simultaneous crises of maximum severity.
- Provides: an equation that describes 12,000 years of demographic history with a single parameter.
- Its origin: materials physics, opening up an unprecedented bridge between that discipline and demography.